Michael Arrington recently bemoaned the lack of ambition amongst those who would challenge Google. What I like about Arrington is that he is prepared to think big and try to see beyond what currently exists. He is not always right but he is bold. In this case I agree with him, I think we are in the infancy of search and for others to give up in the face of Google is not only bad for us but also bad for Google. Any good company should welcome competition as a chance to make them better. Watching a team trot to the title is boring and business is no different.
The challenge for Google will be what if people start searching in a completely new way? One of the reasons facebook is so highly valued is that it is essentially a huge marketing database. It is this reason that Microsoft had to take a strategic interest in facebook as they could not let another chance to develop their advertising revenues slip. I personally think that MS should think more carefully about what type of web apps are going to replace its Office suite and concentrate on those, but that is for another post.
Venturebeat has observed that Google is trying to do an end run around the MS/facebook deal by serving ads up inside widgets. The reason so much money is pouring into widgets is that they command eyeballs and eyeballs are worth money. I suspect the reason facebook is encouraging developers is so they can see if any of them start to make cash then start to tax their revenue for access to the facebook platform.
The real revolution will not come in search but in find. Searching is good if I already know exactly what I want but if I am less sure ‘find’ is more important and this is where facebook comes in. Beacon was a way of friends recommending things to other friends. It was a clumsy, annoying way of doing it but the central principle is there: when people don’t exactly know what they want, find is more important than search.
