It’s that time of year, here’s mine:

1. Kiva will break $100m in loans
2. Microsoft will buy Facebook
3. Google will buy Delicious
4. Microsoft will buy what’s left of Yahoo
5. Jerry Yang will leave Yahoo for good
6. Steve Jobs will step down as Apple CEO
7. Social networking will crack its business model
8. Google’s share of online advertising dollars will fall

Related articles by Zemanta

• Microsoft CEO, Yahoo Chairman Meet in New York
• Yahoo: Bartz’s ‘Gut Instinct’ Is To Keep Search Biz; Separately, Exits UK Contextual Ad Market
• Carol Bartz wants to “kick some butt”
• Microsoft’s quest to beat Google (Richard Waters/Financial Times)
• Yahoo stock: Still not worth it

I’m neglecting the blog. We’re getting to the point where more of my time is being spent on the company plus I have been following the US elections so I haven’t been looking at the tech press so much. I was going to write another post about Jerry Yang’s plaintive cry for a Microsoft takeover but it is getting tedious. He should just quit but nobody else would do much better with Y! They need a Steve Jobs – Yahoo version and that person does not exist.

Related articles by Zemanta

• Jerry Yang reflects on Microhoo deal
• Yahoo Exec: I Need Some Prozac”
• Microsoft chief dismisses Yahoo takeover talk

I haven’t written about Yahoo for a while because there is nothing to write about. Yahoo is dying.

Mike Arrington reported the latest stock drop, it now stands at $13 after turning down $31 from Microsoft. With the markets in turmoil everything is down good and bad. But while most tech stocks will come back stronger Yahoo will not make it.

The basic problem is management. As CEO the buck stops with Jerry Yang. He is not a leader and it shows. He is constantly looking over his shoulder and conducting reviews. In this position a leader should know what needs to be done, have a plan and get on with it.

You can get away with muddled management in a truly great company. I don’t have that much more faith in Eric Schmidt, the money machine was in place when he got on board and he has done not much except ride it. Google has such a great business that it doesn’t matter that the rest of their plans go off half cock. You can’t get away with it in a company that is in trouble. Great leaders can turn around ailing companies. Look at Steve Jobs, Apple was on the floor when he went back, arguably in a worse position than Yahoo was in when Yang took back the reins, and it skyrocketed after he went back. Say what you like about him but Steve Jobs knows where he is going, when he went back to Apple he didn’t need 100 days to sort it out. He knew what to do before he arrived.